This is my personal view on how I exect the market to develop early week. Not financial advices. It’s only a way for me to journal my analysis and predictions.
Long Term Perspective
Interest rate
| American Central Bank | United States | 4.50 % | 4.75 % | 12-18-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Central Bank | United Kingdom | 4.00 % | 4.25 % | 05-08-2025 | |
| European Central Bank | Europe | 2.15 % | 2.40 % | 06-05-2025 | |
| Japanese Central Bank | Japan | 0.50 % | 0.25 |
British Central bank lowers its rate by 0.25. That is a sign that inflation is stabilized in this area and they want to give more room for investment and consumption.
DXY – Trend
Previous week did not do much. price is ranging. I still remain on bearish tone for USD.
Weekly Outlook
Economic calendar –
CPI week with no news on Monday and Tuesday. Based only on this we can have in mind that price can either retrace or consolidate early in the week. That gives a more cautious tone for the beguining of the week.
Technical Analysis
I’m putting there assets that I personnally find interesting in term of price action for the start of the week.
NG – Natural Gas
CL – Crude oil
RTY –
6E – EURUSD
Got almost same PA on 6B ( GBPUSD) but EUR seems stronger. Also GBP lower its rates that might weaken GBP relatively to EUR.
got to be aware that we have an important news event affecting potentialy European central bank rate on EUR on thursday
Monday September 8th
6B trade – Traded ended BE I’ve been a little bit greedy.
Note: For challenges it’s hard to trade on currency futures asyou cannot take big position.
but it’s good when funded i believe.
6E – Review
EUR & GBP Reversed from PWH.
Tuesday September 9th
CL Trade
6E Paper
Wednesday September 10th
CL Loss
I was too late on the move and « jumped » on it at bad price. I have a HTF Bearish biais for CL. But it seems market have other plans. Also, the geopolitic condition ( war btw Israel & Quatar) might have change the analyse. Need to pose on this.
Thursday September 11th -CPI Day
CL Review before CPI
6E Trade – Ended small profit
NQ review
Friday September 12th
GC & HG
Conclusion on the week :
First 2 days were hard. with no news diver prices was not moving as I’m used to. I notice that its hard for me to trade other assets than GC and NQ just because i’m used to. 6E or bounds offered better setups this week.
My model can be applied to every markets, this advantage needs to be used more.
